Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Now, even Cliff Floyd is questioning whether he should've been used as the pinch hitter in the bottom of the ninth against the Cardinals.
Here's an interesting article from the WSJ that was published in October, but read by me today. Basically, the article concludes that after looking at all the numbers, from a statistical perspective, the decision whether to bunt was a tossup.
I've thought all along that it was defensible. Looking back on that inning now, it's easy to focus on the nasty curveballs that struck out Floyd and Beltran. But, at the moment Willie made his decision, the Mets had just hit two straight singles (their only hits since the first inning!) off Wainwright. I think it's understandable for Willie to decide not to give the rookie a free out and a chance to calm down. Willie felt that momentum was on our side, and to be honest, standing in the upper deck, I was feeling the same thing. In fact, I went as far as to dream of Cliff Floyd pulling a Kirk Gibson and launching a homerun over the right field wall. Heck, part of me was dreaming of him pulling a Tommie Agee and launching that homerun into the right field upper deck, where I was standing just fair of the foul pole.
Sadly, it didn't happen. I'm not going to criticize Willie's decision, but I'm not going to criticize Floyd's comments. They show that he's still thinking about that inning. That's understandable. I am, too.
Here's an interesting article from the WSJ that was published in October, but read by me today. Basically, the article concludes that after looking at all the numbers, from a statistical perspective, the decision whether to bunt was a tossup.
I've thought all along that it was defensible. Looking back on that inning now, it's easy to focus on the nasty curveballs that struck out Floyd and Beltran. But, at the moment Willie made his decision, the Mets had just hit two straight singles (their only hits since the first inning!) off Wainwright. I think it's understandable for Willie to decide not to give the rookie a free out and a chance to calm down. Willie felt that momentum was on our side, and to be honest, standing in the upper deck, I was feeling the same thing. In fact, I went as far as to dream of Cliff Floyd pulling a Kirk Gibson and launching a homerun over the right field wall. Heck, part of me was dreaming of him pulling a Tommie Agee and launching that homerun into the right field upper deck, where I was standing just fair of the foul pole.
Sadly, it didn't happen. I'm not going to criticize Willie's decision, but I'm not going to criticize Floyd's comments. They show that he's still thinking about that inning. That's understandable. I am, too.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Ugh. According to this article, Shawn Green had (by far) the worst RF arm in baseball last year. Apparently, Moises was almost as bad, so switching their positions won't help. I guess this is just another reason (mediocre offense, ugly looking D in the playoffs) to hope that Endy and Ben Johnson see some time out in right, and that Milledge is ready to take over sometime this year.
Friday, February 09, 2007
Mets sign Chan Ho for $3 million.
It's hard to get excited about a pitcher who's been below average for the last five years, but it can't hurt to have a little more starting pitching depth, particularly now that Dave Williams won't be ready to start the season. So, now the fifth starter spot comes down to Park, Sosa, Pelfrey, Humber, Vargas, Soler, and Sele. [EDIT - The AP is reporting that the deal is only for $600k guaranteed, with incentives based on innings that can push it up to $3 million. If that's accurate, I like the deal. Very low risk.]
Here are the PECOTA projected EqERAs (ERA normalized to a neutral ballpark):
Pelfrey 4.78
Sosa 4.95*
Soler 5.12
Park 5.18
Sele 5.20
Humber 5.27
Vargas 5.71
*-Sosa's projected as more of a reliever, so his EqERA as a starter would be worse.
That doesn't tell us much that we don't already know. If Pelfrey is deemed ready, he's probably the best option, but it probably makes sense to at least wait until May for the warmer weather and more regular use of the 5th starter. Everyone else is pretty close, other than Jason Vargas.
It's hard to get excited about a pitcher who's been below average for the last five years, but it can't hurt to have a little more starting pitching depth, particularly now that Dave Williams won't be ready to start the season. So, now the fifth starter spot comes down to Park, Sosa, Pelfrey, Humber, Vargas, Soler, and Sele. [EDIT - The AP is reporting that the deal is only for $600k guaranteed, with incentives based on innings that can push it up to $3 million. If that's accurate, I like the deal. Very low risk.]
Here are the PECOTA projected EqERAs (ERA normalized to a neutral ballpark):
Pelfrey 4.78
Sosa 4.95*
Soler 5.12
Park 5.18
Sele 5.20
Humber 5.27
Vargas 5.71
*-Sosa's projected as more of a reliever, so his EqERA as a starter would be worse.
That doesn't tell us much that we don't already know. If Pelfrey is deemed ready, he's probably the best option, but it probably makes sense to at least wait until May for the warmer weather and more regular use of the 5th starter. Everyone else is pretty close, other than Jason Vargas.
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Random Notes
Martinez vs. Tabata: John Sickels with the smackdown between top Mets and Yankees OF prospects.
David Wright dines with W.
Vinny Bombs retires.
J.D. Drew uses hyperbaric oxygen chamber.
Martinez vs. Tabata: John Sickels with the smackdown between top Mets and Yankees OF prospects.
David Wright dines with W.
Vinny Bombs retires.
J.D. Drew uses hyperbaric oxygen chamber.
Saturday, January 27, 2007
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Boomer?
All along, I've read that David Wells will only sign with a West Coast team (presumably the Padres), but this article indicates that he'd be willing to go to Toronto. How 'bout the Mets? He's a better option than Jorge Sosa.
All along, I've read that David Wells will only sign with a West Coast team (presumably the Padres), but this article indicates that he'd be willing to go to Toronto. How 'bout the Mets? He's a better option than Jorge Sosa.
Saturday, January 13, 2007
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sign of the apocalypse: Todd Pratt signs minor league deal with the Yankees.
Sign of the apocalypse: Todd Pratt signs minor league deal with the Yankees.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
$10.8 million for Scott Schoeneweis? Scott Schoeneweis? The same Scott Schoeneweis who had a 4.88 ERA last year, with a 29:24 K:BB ratio? Sure, he can get lefties out, but so can Feliciano. Heck, once Mota is back from his suspension, will Schoeneweis even belong on the roster? Wagner, Heilman, Sanchez, Mota, Feliciano, and Burgos are all probably more deserving of a roster spot. And, worst of all, we could have just kept Bradford for the same price. A lot of Omar's minor moves have worked out quite well, so maybe he deserves the benefit of doubt, but this seems like a huge waste of money. If Feliciano is about to be traded, then I understand the deal, but otherwise, I'm a bit puzzled.
Other news:
-John Thomson didn't come to the Mets because he hates Paul Lo Duca.
-The Reds acquired Jeff Keppinger.
-Barry Bonds took amphetamines.
Other news:
-John Thomson didn't come to the Mets because he hates Paul Lo Duca.
-The Reds acquired Jeff Keppinger.
-Barry Bonds took amphetamines.
Friday, January 05, 2007
Yeah, Arizona's rotation should be pretty decent next year, with Webb and Johnson 1-2, not to mention Livan 3 and Doug Davis 4. Granted those two aren't what they used to be, but Livan can eat up some major innings, and Davis isn't too shabby for a #4.
That Zito signing was so ridiculous; it threw the whole market out of whack. Like they're saying, if Zito got $18 mil annually, what will Johan get, $25 mil? I mean, if you were the Mets, would you shell out 7 yr-$175 mil for him?
I agree about the Milledge-Blanton deal too. I'm not really sold on him, not to mention he's a nut, but I think they could do better than Blanton for him. I mean, I don't know who else will be on the market come July, but there will probably be someone better than Blanton.
That Zito signing was so ridiculous; it threw the whole market out of whack. Like they're saying, if Zito got $18 mil annually, what will Johan get, $25 mil? I mean, if you were the Mets, would you shell out 7 yr-$175 mil for him?
I agree about the Milledge-Blanton deal too. I'm not really sold on him, not to mention he's a nut, but I think they could do better than Blanton for him. I mean, I don't know who else will be on the market come July, but there will probably be someone better than Blanton.
Thursday, January 04, 2007
The FAN is reporting that the rumored Randy Johnson trade is a done deal. Johnson to the DBacks for Luis Vizcaino and three prospects (the Yanks are adding a lot of minor league arms this offseason).
Unless they're extremely confident they can sign Clemens, the apparent desperation to dump the Big Unit is a mistake. Even at the age of 42, Johnson made 33 starts last year with a K:BB ratio of 172:60. Sure, his ERA was 5.00, but
this post by Nate Silver indicates that was largely due to bad luck. Before the trade, PECOTA projected Johnson to be the Yankees' ace in 2007.
In return, the Yanks are receiving a pretty good reliever and some mediocre prospects. The three prospects were ranked as the 18th, 19th, and 20th best prospects in the DBacks system by John Sickels, all receiving a C+. No list I've seen ranks them in the top 10. Here's the relevant excerpt from Sickels:
18. Alberto Gonzalez, SS, C+ (good glove)
19. Steven Jackson, RHP, C+ (excellent season in Double-A following mechanical rebuild)
20. Ross Ohlendorf, RHP, C+ (sleeper who throws strikes)
The DBacks, on the other hand, with a 1-2 of Webb and Johnson have greatly improved their odds in the wide open NL West.
Unless they're extremely confident they can sign Clemens, the apparent desperation to dump the Big Unit is a mistake. Even at the age of 42, Johnson made 33 starts last year with a K:BB ratio of 172:60. Sure, his ERA was 5.00, but
this post by Nate Silver indicates that was largely due to bad luck. Before the trade, PECOTA projected Johnson to be the Yankees' ace in 2007.
In return, the Yanks are receiving a pretty good reliever and some mediocre prospects. The three prospects were ranked as the 18th, 19th, and 20th best prospects in the DBacks system by John Sickels, all receiving a C+. No list I've seen ranks them in the top 10. Here's the relevant excerpt from Sickels:
18. Alberto Gonzalez, SS, C+ (good glove)
19. Steven Jackson, RHP, C+ (excellent season in Double-A following mechanical rebuild)
20. Ross Ohlendorf, RHP, C+ (sleeper who throws strikes)
The DBacks, on the other hand, with a 1-2 of Webb and Johnson have greatly improved their odds in the wide open NL West.
Time to panic?
I'm glad the Mets didn't spend $126 million on Barry Zito. Barry Zito is not a dominant enough pitcher to justify that kind of salary. But, missing out on Zito at this late stage in the game leaves the Mets with a gaping hole in their rotation. Current candidates for the #5 spot include Dave Williams, Jason Vargas, Alay Soler, Mike Pelfrey, and Philip Humber. Pelfrey and Humber are both excellent prospects, but it doesn't seem that either is ready to make the jump to the majors on Opening Day. None of the other three guys have anything in their track record to instill any sense of confidence that they can handle the job. Also, there are some other question marks in the rotation (which Oliver Perez will show up?, will El Duque stay healthy?), so Williams/Vargas/Soler may be needed to fill other holes. The options available on the free agent market are less than thrilling, so there's been speculation that the Mets may make a trade, with Joe Blanton being one of the leading candidates. Should the Mets deal Lastings Milledge for Blanton (or a similar pitcher)?
On one hand, prospects are rarely sure things. A perusal of this list of the top prospects from 2002 shows just how hard it is to project player development. So, while David Wright and Jose Reyes have demonstrated just how valuable developing players through the system can be, not every prospect turns into David Wright or Jose Reyes. Looking at Milledge specifically, there are some reasons to doubt his development. His tools have always been evident, but his production over the years hasn't matched them. He failed to produce in his brief stint in the majors last year, and he clearly has some maturity issues. Also, the Mets have two other strong outfield prospects.
On the other hand, everyone seems to agree that Milledge still has a very high ceiling. And according to Nate Silver, his production at AAA last year was excellent. I find it hard to believe that Norfolk is that hard to hit in, but Nate knows far more about projecting performance than any of us, so I'll cut him some slack.
In the end, I think a Milledge-Blanton deal would be a big mistake. Most importantly, it seems that Milledge's market value has slipped (and if Nate is to be believed, undeservedly so). The Mets shouldn't sell low. If Milledge has a strong first half in the minors, he can probably fetch a lot more at the trade deadline than he can now. Secondly, Blanton simply isn't enough of an impact player (he's averaged about 5 Ks per 9 innings the last two seasons) to trade a top prospect for. If the Mets are going to deal Milledge, why do it for a pitcher who's merely good, without the potential to be any better? Sure, Blanton will help the team get through the first half of this season, but once October rolls around, with Pedro (and possibly Pelfrey and Humber) around, Blanton may not even make the playoff rotation. If the Mets are determined to trade Milledge, they'll be better off holding onto him to use as a chip to land a premier player. For instance, the best pitcher in baseball may be available next offseason, or at the trading deadline if the Twins are out of the race. Why not plug the hole in the rotation with someone like Tomo Ohka, Chan Ho Park, or Brian Lawrence, and hold onto Lastings until someone better is available down the road.
I'm glad the Mets didn't spend $126 million on Barry Zito. Barry Zito is not a dominant enough pitcher to justify that kind of salary. But, missing out on Zito at this late stage in the game leaves the Mets with a gaping hole in their rotation. Current candidates for the #5 spot include Dave Williams, Jason Vargas, Alay Soler, Mike Pelfrey, and Philip Humber. Pelfrey and Humber are both excellent prospects, but it doesn't seem that either is ready to make the jump to the majors on Opening Day. None of the other three guys have anything in their track record to instill any sense of confidence that they can handle the job. Also, there are some other question marks in the rotation (which Oliver Perez will show up?, will El Duque stay healthy?), so Williams/Vargas/Soler may be needed to fill other holes. The options available on the free agent market are less than thrilling, so there's been speculation that the Mets may make a trade, with Joe Blanton being one of the leading candidates. Should the Mets deal Lastings Milledge for Blanton (or a similar pitcher)?
On one hand, prospects are rarely sure things. A perusal of this list of the top prospects from 2002 shows just how hard it is to project player development. So, while David Wright and Jose Reyes have demonstrated just how valuable developing players through the system can be, not every prospect turns into David Wright or Jose Reyes. Looking at Milledge specifically, there are some reasons to doubt his development. His tools have always been evident, but his production over the years hasn't matched them. He failed to produce in his brief stint in the majors last year, and he clearly has some maturity issues. Also, the Mets have two other strong outfield prospects.
On the other hand, everyone seems to agree that Milledge still has a very high ceiling. And according to Nate Silver, his production at AAA last year was excellent. I find it hard to believe that Norfolk is that hard to hit in, but Nate knows far more about projecting performance than any of us, so I'll cut him some slack.
In the end, I think a Milledge-Blanton deal would be a big mistake. Most importantly, it seems that Milledge's market value has slipped (and if Nate is to be believed, undeservedly so). The Mets shouldn't sell low. If Milledge has a strong first half in the minors, he can probably fetch a lot more at the trade deadline than he can now. Secondly, Blanton simply isn't enough of an impact player (he's averaged about 5 Ks per 9 innings the last two seasons) to trade a top prospect for. If the Mets are going to deal Milledge, why do it for a pitcher who's merely good, without the potential to be any better? Sure, Blanton will help the team get through the first half of this season, but once October rolls around, with Pedro (and possibly Pelfrey and Humber) around, Blanton may not even make the playoff rotation. If the Mets are determined to trade Milledge, they'll be better off holding onto him to use as a chip to land a premier player. For instance, the best pitcher in baseball may be available next offseason, or at the trading deadline if the Twins are out of the race. Why not plug the hole in the rotation with someone like Tomo Ohka, Chan Ho Park, or Brian Lawrence, and hold onto Lastings until someone better is available down the road.
Monday, December 25, 2006
Thursday, December 21, 2006
John Sickels' take on the Mets Prospects.
Very similar to Prospectus' top 10. In fact, the same 10 people are in the top 10, with some minor movement. Sickels seems a little less enthusiastic about Humber and Carlos Gomez, and has Soler a lot lower down. But the general conclusion is the same: the Mets have 4 big prospects (Fernando Martinez, Pelfrey, Humber, and Gomez) and a lot of question marks after that.
Very similar to Prospectus' top 10. In fact, the same 10 people are in the top 10, with some minor movement. Sickels seems a little less enthusiastic about Humber and Carlos Gomez, and has Soler a lot lower down. But the general conclusion is the same: the Mets have 4 big prospects (Fernando Martinez, Pelfrey, Humber, and Gomez) and a lot of question marks after that.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Thursday, December 14, 2006
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