Mike Nichols of metsblog: "As Keith Hernandez mentioned during SNY’s broadcast last night, it’s time for Delgado to be mentioned in National League MVP conversation."
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Friday, August 22, 2008
Over at BP and SI, Nate Silver has finally put out his annual list of the top 50 players in baseball for the next 5 (6 counting this year) seasons. The Mets fare very well, with three players in the top 10:
1. Hanley Ramirez
2. David Wright
3. Albert Pujols
4. Evan Longoria
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Jose Reyes
7. Joe Mauer
8. Alex Rodriguez
9. C.C. Sabathia
10. Johan Santana
Beltran also makes the list, at #45. There are more robust ways to evaluate teams, but it's hard to win in baseball without at least a couple of premiere players. Having 3 of the top 10 (or top 25 for that matter) players in baseball for the foreseeable future means the franchise is in pretty good shape. There are some holes that need to be filled next year, but the core of the team is pretty strong.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Great quote from Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman:
"Claiming Washburn two weeks after ditching [Livan] Hernandez is like going to Taco Bell for dinner after lunch at White Castle kept you in the bathroom all afternoon."
"Claiming Washburn two weeks after ditching [Livan] Hernandez is like going to Taco Bell for dinner after lunch at White Castle kept you in the bathroom all afternoon."
Friday, August 08, 2008
The Mets desperately need a corner outfielder. It appears likely that Ryan Church's season is over. That means that the Mets are going to go through the final two months of the season in a tight pennant race with a left field platoon of Dan Murphy and Nick Evans. Murphy and Evans were both having very nice seasons in AA, but neither has much experience in the outfield. Evans has played 22 games in the outfield during his minor league career; Murphy has played 4.
Is this really the best the Mets can come up with? Admittedly, I don't know what exactly was available at the trade deadline. I understand that they didn't want to pay the price that Bay or Nady would've required. I don't know what it would've taken to trade for Adam Dunn or Raul Ibanez.
Now there's news of a clear opportunity that Omar ignored: Brian Giles was placed on waivers by the Padres. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Red Sox are the team that claimed Giles, which means that the Mets did not place a claim on him. The Mets may not have been able to pull off a deal with San Diego, but wasn't it worth a shot? This team desperately needs a corner outfielder. Giles is still one of the better corner outfielders in baseball. Prospectus ranks him fifth among right fielders this year in RARP. Seems like Giles would've been an easy solution, but I guess Omar doesn't think there's a problem.
Is this really the best the Mets can come up with? Admittedly, I don't know what exactly was available at the trade deadline. I understand that they didn't want to pay the price that Bay or Nady would've required. I don't know what it would've taken to trade for Adam Dunn or Raul Ibanez.
Now there's news of a clear opportunity that Omar ignored: Brian Giles was placed on waivers by the Padres. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Red Sox are the team that claimed Giles, which means that the Mets did not place a claim on him. The Mets may not have been able to pull off a deal with San Diego, but wasn't it worth a shot? This team desperately needs a corner outfielder. Giles is still one of the better corner outfielders in baseball. Prospectus ranks him fifth among right fielders this year in RARP. Seems like Giles would've been an easy solution, but I guess Omar doesn't think there's a problem.
UPDATE - It appears that Giles used his no-trade clause to block a trade to the Sox. For the record, the Mets are not one of the eight teams included in his no-trade clause, so Giles couldn't have blocked a trade to the Mets.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Player A: 393 AB, 72 R, 111 H, 23 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 7 SB, 59 BB, 86 K, .282/.375/.519
Player B: 365 AB, 66 R, 109 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 1 SB, 52 BB, 86 K, .299/.398/.529
All the talk-radio talk is completely off base. Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez have been virtually identical at the plate so far this year. Bay is much better defensively. He's a better baserunner. And he's less likely to sit out a game against the Yankees with a "knee injury."
Did I mention that Bay is under contract for $7.5 million next year?
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
The Mets still wouldn't be able to hit it:
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/jamie_moyer_change_up
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/jamie_moyer_change_up
Friday, July 25, 2008
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Good news from the NYT Dining Section regarding CitiField:
"Danny Meyer's Union Square Hospitality Group will open a Blue Smoke barbecue restaurant; a Shake Shack stand; Pop Fries, serving Belgian-style hand-cut fries; and a taqueria.
...
[the Mets] are negotiating with other well-known New York restaurateurs to open elsewhere in the stadium."
I know there may be long lines and high prices, but at least there will be more than one decent food option at the stadium. Speaking of which, I'll be pissed if the Wilpons don't bring the Mama's stand over to the new park.
"Danny Meyer's Union Square Hospitality Group will open a Blue Smoke barbecue restaurant; a Shake Shack stand; Pop Fries, serving Belgian-style hand-cut fries; and a taqueria.
...
[the Mets] are negotiating with other well-known New York restaurateurs to open elsewhere in the stadium."
I know there may be long lines and high prices, but at least there will be more than one decent food option at the stadium. Speaking of which, I'll be pissed if the Wilpons don't bring the Mama's stand over to the new park.
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
There's a poll on MetsBlog asking whether the Mets should sign Barry Bonds. People are against it, about 2-1. Without rehashing the entire argument, I'll just post the following statistics:
Barry Bonds OPS in 2007: 1.045
Combined Mets LF OPS in 2008: .625
Just to put it into perspective, if Bonds played 2/3 of the time (which is what he did in 2007), the above difference would be worth about 6 wins over the course of a season (Bonds's defense might knock it down to 5 wins).
Barry Bonds OPS in 2007: 1.045
Combined Mets LF OPS in 2008: .625
Just to put it into perspective, if Bonds played 2/3 of the time (which is what he did in 2007), the above difference would be worth about 6 wins over the course of a season (Bonds's defense might knock it down to 5 wins).
Monday, July 07, 2008
C.C., Bedard, Colon
The Sabathia trade seems like a clear example of a trade that helps both teams. Despite preseason expectations, the Indians are clearly out of the race; they no longer need Sabathia. The Brewers are in a tight race (they're currently tied for the Wild Card). Sabathia makes them the clear favorite to win the Wild Card and helps their chances in the postseason. Matt LaPorta is a great offensive prospect who could be a star in Cleveland, but was probably a poor fit on a team that already has a young star at first base; a young star who is defensively challenged in left field; and a very good right fielder who might be stretched defensively in center.
Next up on the trading block: Erik Bedard? The Mariners are out of the race and don't seem to pleased with Bedard, but they have a problem: it'll be embarrassing when they don't get nearly as much in return as they gave up to get him five months ago. The Mariners never should've traded Adam Jones (and Sherrill, etc.) for Bedard; their team simply wasn't good enough to compete this year.
The Bedard situation sort of reminds me of another portly Cleveland pitcher: Bartolo Colon. On June 27, 2002, the Expos traded Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Phillips for Colon. The following January, they traded Colon and only received Orlando Hernandez, Rocky Biddle, and Jeff Liefer in return. Omar Minaya's excuse for dumping so much talent in the first place is that he thought the Expos wouldn't be in existence for long, so there was no need to hold onto the prospects. That always sounded a little dubious to me - there was clearly at least a chance that the Expos would be sold and moved to another city and that a strong farm system should've (at least in theory) resulted in a higher price for the franchise.
Another flaw in Omar's theory is that the Expos didn't really have a good shot at making the playoffs with or without Colon. They were 6.5 games behind the Braves in the East and they were 5 games behind the Diamondbacks in the Wild Card race. The Expos were also 2 games behind the Giants and tied with the Reds. The Expos had given up more runs than they had scored, so their 41-36 record was probably somewhat of a fluke. Not surprisingly, they went 42-43 the rest of the way, finishing 19 games behind the Braves and 12.5 behind the Giants for the Wild Card. Colon pitched as well as could have been expected, but the team just wasn't playoff material.
The Sabathia trade seems like a clear example of a trade that helps both teams. Despite preseason expectations, the Indians are clearly out of the race; they no longer need Sabathia. The Brewers are in a tight race (they're currently tied for the Wild Card). Sabathia makes them the clear favorite to win the Wild Card and helps their chances in the postseason. Matt LaPorta is a great offensive prospect who could be a star in Cleveland, but was probably a poor fit on a team that already has a young star at first base; a young star who is defensively challenged in left field; and a very good right fielder who might be stretched defensively in center.
Next up on the trading block: Erik Bedard? The Mariners are out of the race and don't seem to pleased with Bedard, but they have a problem: it'll be embarrassing when they don't get nearly as much in return as they gave up to get him five months ago. The Mariners never should've traded Adam Jones (and Sherrill, etc.) for Bedard; their team simply wasn't good enough to compete this year.
The Bedard situation sort of reminds me of another portly Cleveland pitcher: Bartolo Colon. On June 27, 2002, the Expos traded Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Phillips for Colon. The following January, they traded Colon and only received Orlando Hernandez, Rocky Biddle, and Jeff Liefer in return. Omar Minaya's excuse for dumping so much talent in the first place is that he thought the Expos wouldn't be in existence for long, so there was no need to hold onto the prospects. That always sounded a little dubious to me - there was clearly at least a chance that the Expos would be sold and moved to another city and that a strong farm system should've (at least in theory) resulted in a higher price for the franchise.
Another flaw in Omar's theory is that the Expos didn't really have a good shot at making the playoffs with or without Colon. They were 6.5 games behind the Braves in the East and they were 5 games behind the Diamondbacks in the Wild Card race. The Expos were also 2 games behind the Giants and tied with the Reds. The Expos had given up more runs than they had scored, so their 41-36 record was probably somewhat of a fluke. Not surprisingly, they went 42-43 the rest of the way, finishing 19 games behind the Braves and 12.5 behind the Giants for the Wild Card. Colon pitched as well as could have been expected, but the team just wasn't playoff material.
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
During one of the Subway Series games last weekend, one of the announcers (possibly David Cone) theorized that the reason the AL has been so dominant in interleague games is the DH. For the last couple years, a lot of baseball "experts" have spend a lot of time trying to explain why the AL has been winning such a large percentage of the interleague games. For some reason, they rarely discuss the obvious explanation: AL teams have higher payrolls.
Last season, the average payroll for a National League team was $73.6 million; the average for an AL team was $92.8 million. So, AL teams are spending 25% more on payroll and writers are struggling to explain why the AL is better? Here's a rough calculation - it's generally estimated that free agent players should cost about $2 million per win they add to your team. I think salary inflation may have pushed that to something more like $2.5 million. So, depending on how you want to calculate it, the average AL team last year should have been about 7.5-9.5 wins better than the average NL team. Using the 7.5 number, you'd expect AL teams to have a .546 winning percentage in interleague games. They're actual winning percentage last year was .544. Bingo!
OK, this year, the AL winning percentage was .594 and it was a little higher in 2006. So, the difference in payroll doesn't explain everything. But, it gets us a long way to explaining the difference. The rest of the explanation may be random fluctuation, better personnel decisions made by AL teams, some structural advantage (which I'm skeptical of), or some combination of all 3. But, the payroll difference is large and I think anyone who's honestly trying to figure out why the AL has the advantage needs to start there.
Last season, the average payroll for a National League team was $73.6 million; the average for an AL team was $92.8 million. So, AL teams are spending 25% more on payroll and writers are struggling to explain why the AL is better? Here's a rough calculation - it's generally estimated that free agent players should cost about $2 million per win they add to your team. I think salary inflation may have pushed that to something more like $2.5 million. So, depending on how you want to calculate it, the average AL team last year should have been about 7.5-9.5 wins better than the average NL team. Using the 7.5 number, you'd expect AL teams to have a .546 winning percentage in interleague games. They're actual winning percentage last year was .544. Bingo!
OK, this year, the AL winning percentage was .594 and it was a little higher in 2006. So, the difference in payroll doesn't explain everything. But, it gets us a long way to explaining the difference. The rest of the explanation may be random fluctuation, better personnel decisions made by AL teams, some structural advantage (which I'm skeptical of), or some combination of all 3. But, the payroll difference is large and I think anyone who's honestly trying to figure out why the AL has the advantage needs to start there.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Bye Bye, Willie.
I don't have much to say on the Willie firing. I've never been a big fan of his, but I don't think the team is going to suddenly play much differently for Manuel. The whole situation was handled poorly and seemed to be a distraction, so I'm glad it was finally resolved. I don't know much about Jerry Manuel, but it seems that he's a laid back, non-excitable manager like Willie. Seems to me that if you really wanted to shake things up, you'd go in the opposite direction.
For a much better and much longer take on the whole situation and the general state of incompetence in Mets management, read Faith and Fear in Flushing.
I don't have much to say on the Willie firing. I've never been a big fan of his, but I don't think the team is going to suddenly play much differently for Manuel. The whole situation was handled poorly and seemed to be a distraction, so I'm glad it was finally resolved. I don't know much about Jerry Manuel, but it seems that he's a laid back, non-excitable manager like Willie. Seems to me that if you really wanted to shake things up, you'd go in the opposite direction.
For a much better and much longer take on the whole situation and the general state of incompetence in Mets management, read Faith and Fear in Flushing.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
I'm skeptical, but Nate Silver does some fancy simulating and concludes that Chipper Jones "has about a 12-13 percent chance of finishing with a .400 average."
I'm glad someone in the press is taking the Mets to task for the Church concussion fiasco. Seriously, the way the team handled the situation is inexcusable.
On May 20, Ryan Church suffered his second concussion of the year. Despite the fact that he was still symptomatic, he pinch hit in a game two days later, then flew from Atlanta to Colorado, pinch hit in two games there, flew back to New York, and pinch hit in a game the next day (the 26th).
Now, I'm no doctor and I don't know much about concussions. But, based on the little bit I've read, it seems that the general advice is to avoid any strenuous activity (including jogging and flying on an airplane) until all symptoms subside because such activity can exacerbate the problem. That was obviously ignored in this case - if Church wasn't feeling up to starting the game, then he shouldn't have been used at all. And he shouldn't have been flying. After the 26th, the Mets finally decided he needed some time off. After five days off, despite still being symptomatic, Church returned to the starting lineup, then flew to California and started three more games. Now, after all that, he's still symptomatic and the Mets finally put him on the DL.
Hopefully, after 15 days, Church will be all better. But, there's a chance that all this activity has made his situation worse and that his whole season could be fucked.
The Mets' handling of this situation is inexcusable and shows just how poorly run the team is. The Mets are a business. Ryan Church is an asset worth millions of dollars to the business. As soon as Church suffered the concussion, Omar Minaya should've had someone on his staff contact multiple experts in the field and get their opinion on how the situation should be handled. That's what Alan Schwarz did and the answer was clear: he shouldn't play until he's been symptom free, preferably for a couple of days. If a reporter could find these experts, why couldn't the Mets? If a reporter could find a player (Corey Koskie) whose career was curtailed due to concussions, why couldn't the Mets? I assume the Mets have greater resources for finding medical experts than I do, but how about just doing a Google search for "concussion experts?"
On May 20, Ryan Church suffered his second concussion of the year. Despite the fact that he was still symptomatic, he pinch hit in a game two days later, then flew from Atlanta to Colorado, pinch hit in two games there, flew back to New York, and pinch hit in a game the next day (the 26th).
Now, I'm no doctor and I don't know much about concussions. But, based on the little bit I've read, it seems that the general advice is to avoid any strenuous activity (including jogging and flying on an airplane) until all symptoms subside because such activity can exacerbate the problem. That was obviously ignored in this case - if Church wasn't feeling up to starting the game, then he shouldn't have been used at all. And he shouldn't have been flying. After the 26th, the Mets finally decided he needed some time off. After five days off, despite still being symptomatic, Church returned to the starting lineup, then flew to California and started three more games. Now, after all that, he's still symptomatic and the Mets finally put him on the DL.
Hopefully, after 15 days, Church will be all better. But, there's a chance that all this activity has made his situation worse and that his whole season could be fucked.
The Mets' handling of this situation is inexcusable and shows just how poorly run the team is. The Mets are a business. Ryan Church is an asset worth millions of dollars to the business. As soon as Church suffered the concussion, Omar Minaya should've had someone on his staff contact multiple experts in the field and get their opinion on how the situation should be handled. That's what Alan Schwarz did and the answer was clear: he shouldn't play until he's been symptom free, preferably for a couple of days. If a reporter could find these experts, why couldn't the Mets? If a reporter could find a player (Corey Koskie) whose career was curtailed due to concussions, why couldn't the Mets? I assume the Mets have greater resources for finding medical experts than I do, but how about just doing a Google search for "concussion experts?"
Monday, June 09, 2008
Thursday, June 05, 2008
Draft Day
Exciting day for the Mets, right? After two straight years with no first round picks, the Mets have two today. And with an early supplemental pick, they have 3 of the first 33 picks. Sorry, I'm still not excited. The Mets pick at 18, 22, and 33. What can we expect from pick #18? Well, the Mets had the same pick 7 years ago and nabbed Aaron Heilman. He's not a superstar by any means, but he's been a solid member of the bullpen for the last few years, so that's not bad. If they wind up with another Heilman at 18 today, I guess I'll be happy. Heck, maybe they'll do better, maybe Heilman is just a mediocre 18, maybe the sky's the limit!
Unfortunately, history hasn't been kind to players picked at 18. In fact, Heilman is probably the best 18th pick since... Joe Magrane in 1985? Magrane was a pretty good starter for a few years, but Heilman still has a decent shot at having a better career. The only clear cut superior player is the 18th pick in 1974, Willie Wilson. Here's the entire list of notable (and I'm using that word loosely) players taken with the 18th pick:
2004 Josh Fields
2001 Aaron Heilman
1985 Joe Magrane
1978 Rex Hudler
1974 Willie Wilson
Fortunately, players taken with the 22nd pick have done a little better. Here's that list:
2004 Glen Perkins
2002 Jeremy Guthrie
1996 Gil Meche
1992 Rick Helling
1987 Craig Biggio
1985 Rafael Palmeiro
1976 Bruce Hurst
1972 Chet Lemon
Biggio has a strong Hall of Fame case and Palmeiro would've if it hadn't been for the steroid issue. Still, there hasn't been much in the last 20 years.
33rd picks? I wish I hadn't bothered to look:
2000 Dustin McGowan
1998 Brad Wilkerson
1987 Dave Burba
1968 Milt Wilcox
Exciting day for the Mets, right? After two straight years with no first round picks, the Mets have two today. And with an early supplemental pick, they have 3 of the first 33 picks. Sorry, I'm still not excited. The Mets pick at 18, 22, and 33. What can we expect from pick #18? Well, the Mets had the same pick 7 years ago and nabbed Aaron Heilman. He's not a superstar by any means, but he's been a solid member of the bullpen for the last few years, so that's not bad. If they wind up with another Heilman at 18 today, I guess I'll be happy. Heck, maybe they'll do better, maybe Heilman is just a mediocre 18, maybe the sky's the limit!
Unfortunately, history hasn't been kind to players picked at 18. In fact, Heilman is probably the best 18th pick since... Joe Magrane in 1985? Magrane was a pretty good starter for a few years, but Heilman still has a decent shot at having a better career. The only clear cut superior player is the 18th pick in 1974, Willie Wilson. Here's the entire list of notable (and I'm using that word loosely) players taken with the 18th pick:
2004 Josh Fields
2001 Aaron Heilman
1985 Joe Magrane
1978 Rex Hudler
1974 Willie Wilson
Fortunately, players taken with the 22nd pick have done a little better. Here's that list:
2004 Glen Perkins
2002 Jeremy Guthrie
1996 Gil Meche
1992 Rick Helling
1987 Craig Biggio
1985 Rafael Palmeiro
1976 Bruce Hurst
1972 Chet Lemon
Biggio has a strong Hall of Fame case and Palmeiro would've if it hadn't been for the steroid issue. Still, there hasn't been much in the last 20 years.
33rd picks? I wish I hadn't bothered to look:
2000 Dustin McGowan
1998 Brad Wilkerson
1987 Dave Burba
1968 Milt Wilcox
Comforting fact from Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman:
"[Johan Santana]'s made a dozen starts for the Mets and is 7-3 with a 3.20 ERA. On average from 2004-2007, he went 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA through a dozen starts. In fact, seven wins and a 3.20 ERA are both the best marks Santana has ever had through 12 starts."
"[Johan Santana]'s made a dozen starts for the Mets and is 7-3 with a 3.20 ERA. On average from 2004-2007, he went 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA through a dozen starts. In fact, seven wins and a 3.20 ERA are both the best marks Santana has ever had through 12 starts."
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