Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Now, even Cliff Floyd is questioning whether he should've been used as the pinch hitter in the bottom of the ninth against the Cardinals.
Here's an interesting article from the WSJ that was published in October, but read by me today. Basically, the article concludes that after looking at all the numbers, from a statistical perspective, the decision whether to bunt was a tossup.
I've thought all along that it was defensible. Looking back on that inning now, it's easy to focus on the nasty curveballs that struck out Floyd and Beltran. But, at the moment Willie made his decision, the Mets had just hit two straight singles (their only hits since the first inning!) off Wainwright. I think it's understandable for Willie to decide not to give the rookie a free out and a chance to calm down. Willie felt that momentum was on our side, and to be honest, standing in the upper deck, I was feeling the same thing. In fact, I went as far as to dream of Cliff Floyd pulling a Kirk Gibson and launching a homerun over the right field wall. Heck, part of me was dreaming of him pulling a Tommie Agee and launching that homerun into the right field upper deck, where I was standing just fair of the foul pole.
Sadly, it didn't happen. I'm not going to criticize Willie's decision, but I'm not going to criticize Floyd's comments. They show that he's still thinking about that inning. That's understandable. I am, too.
Here's an interesting article from the WSJ that was published in October, but read by me today. Basically, the article concludes that after looking at all the numbers, from a statistical perspective, the decision whether to bunt was a tossup.
I've thought all along that it was defensible. Looking back on that inning now, it's easy to focus on the nasty curveballs that struck out Floyd and Beltran. But, at the moment Willie made his decision, the Mets had just hit two straight singles (their only hits since the first inning!) off Wainwright. I think it's understandable for Willie to decide not to give the rookie a free out and a chance to calm down. Willie felt that momentum was on our side, and to be honest, standing in the upper deck, I was feeling the same thing. In fact, I went as far as to dream of Cliff Floyd pulling a Kirk Gibson and launching a homerun over the right field wall. Heck, part of me was dreaming of him pulling a Tommie Agee and launching that homerun into the right field upper deck, where I was standing just fair of the foul pole.
Sadly, it didn't happen. I'm not going to criticize Willie's decision, but I'm not going to criticize Floyd's comments. They show that he's still thinking about that inning. That's understandable. I am, too.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Ugh. According to this article, Shawn Green had (by far) the worst RF arm in baseball last year. Apparently, Moises was almost as bad, so switching their positions won't help. I guess this is just another reason (mediocre offense, ugly looking D in the playoffs) to hope that Endy and Ben Johnson see some time out in right, and that Milledge is ready to take over sometime this year.
Friday, February 09, 2007
Mets sign Chan Ho for $3 million.
It's hard to get excited about a pitcher who's been below average for the last five years, but it can't hurt to have a little more starting pitching depth, particularly now that Dave Williams won't be ready to start the season. So, now the fifth starter spot comes down to Park, Sosa, Pelfrey, Humber, Vargas, Soler, and Sele. [EDIT - The AP is reporting that the deal is only for $600k guaranteed, with incentives based on innings that can push it up to $3 million. If that's accurate, I like the deal. Very low risk.]
Here are the PECOTA projected EqERAs (ERA normalized to a neutral ballpark):
Pelfrey 4.78
Sosa 4.95*
Soler 5.12
Park 5.18
Sele 5.20
Humber 5.27
Vargas 5.71
*-Sosa's projected as more of a reliever, so his EqERA as a starter would be worse.
That doesn't tell us much that we don't already know. If Pelfrey is deemed ready, he's probably the best option, but it probably makes sense to at least wait until May for the warmer weather and more regular use of the 5th starter. Everyone else is pretty close, other than Jason Vargas.
It's hard to get excited about a pitcher who's been below average for the last five years, but it can't hurt to have a little more starting pitching depth, particularly now that Dave Williams won't be ready to start the season. So, now the fifth starter spot comes down to Park, Sosa, Pelfrey, Humber, Vargas, Soler, and Sele. [EDIT - The AP is reporting that the deal is only for $600k guaranteed, with incentives based on innings that can push it up to $3 million. If that's accurate, I like the deal. Very low risk.]
Here are the PECOTA projected EqERAs (ERA normalized to a neutral ballpark):
Pelfrey 4.78
Sosa 4.95*
Soler 5.12
Park 5.18
Sele 5.20
Humber 5.27
Vargas 5.71
*-Sosa's projected as more of a reliever, so his EqERA as a starter would be worse.
That doesn't tell us much that we don't already know. If Pelfrey is deemed ready, he's probably the best option, but it probably makes sense to at least wait until May for the warmer weather and more regular use of the 5th starter. Everyone else is pretty close, other than Jason Vargas.
Thursday, February 08, 2007
Random Notes
Martinez vs. Tabata: John Sickels with the smackdown between top Mets and Yankees OF prospects.
David Wright dines with W.
Vinny Bombs retires.
J.D. Drew uses hyperbaric oxygen chamber.
Martinez vs. Tabata: John Sickels with the smackdown between top Mets and Yankees OF prospects.
David Wright dines with W.
Vinny Bombs retires.
J.D. Drew uses hyperbaric oxygen chamber.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)