Wednesday, July 28, 2004

just to inject some more real perspective on the mets situation. they may still be in the 'hunt' for the nl east, but they are the fourth worst team in the entire National League. The mets are better only than the d-backs, the rockies, and the expos. they are currently tied with the brewers and a half-game back of the pirates. esteemed company. so yes, to reiterate what ryan said, this team should be looking into selling, not buying.

remember when shane-o-wac was on the cover of sports illustrated back in '99? well, you know what? maybe they were right, maybe he is the next mickey the field.
Shane Spencer - DUI
From the police report:
"I asked if he had any alcohol to drink. He said a few. I asked how many was a few. He said six or seven."

Tuesday, July 27, 2004

This isn't a very timely post, but you know how every year after the Rule V draft, somebody asks "has anyone good ever been taken?" and someone else responds Bobby Bonilla and whoever the other guy is. Well, I just read that Johan Santana was taken in the Rule V draft by the Marlins from the Astros, and then traded to the Twins the same day. Imagine either the Astros or Marlins rotations with Santana!

Monday, July 26, 2004

Now that the Mets are 5 games out, I think it's pretty unlikely that they're going to make a miraculous comeback and win the division. So, I think the whole Kris Benson idea should be killed.
Furthermore, the Mets should start thinking about trading whatever chips they do have for some prospects. Maybe wait till the deadline to pull the trigger, but start exploring the trade market. I think we could get a lot in return for Al Leiter. Other than Johnson, he'd probably be the best available pitcher. He has the best ERA in baseball! And he's essentially a free agent at the end of the year.
And we could probably get a decent package for Hidalgo, too. Since joining the Mets, he's been great, so we should be able to get a lot more for him than we gave up. Either Oakland or L.A. could use him.

Sunday, July 25, 2004

"It does not hurt or nothing".

--if it does not hurt, then you play. very simple. Props to ESPN for saysing "if stupidity were an injury, Shane Spencer would be on the DL often, and he is again." Another reason to not wear sandals.

Friday, July 23, 2004

This sums up the Mets perfectly (from

Mets outfielder Shane Spencer is on the disabled list for doing something "stupid."

Spencer was wearing sandals when he stepped on some glass on a bar room floor, causing a cut on his right heel that required five stitches. The incident occurred on Thursday night after New York lost to the Montreal Expos, 4-1.

"It's frusrating," Spencer said. "You do not want to go on the disabled list for something stupid. It does not hurt or nothing. It is just a big gash."

Hilarious post on the Raindrops about the Super Joe to the Padres deal falling through.

Thursday, July 22, 2004

Go, Johnny, Go! Go, Johnny, go, go, go!

No, we mean Go Johnny, go. as in leave. unless he can play first base. worth a shot, everyone else has played there.

where is glavine's run support?

thankfully, today was day camp day, so all the kids left before the later innings. i went on camp day once, ohhh, how the girls swooned for cutey-pie dave magadan. the dream lives on for the little girls of today with dave wright.
Art Howe is a moron! I'm generally not that critical of him, but why the hell did he bring John Franco into the game today? 8th inning, tie game, 1-1. Very critical moment in the game. He could have brought in Looper, but okay, most managers wouldn't have done that. Here are some of his other options:
     ERA, IP, K, BB, HR
Moreno  3.21, 33.2, 29, 10, 0
Botallico 3.34, 35, 35, 17, 0
Franco  5.14, 35, 27, 19, 3

Clearly, Moreno and Botallico have performed better this year. Moreno pitched 2/3 of an inning the night before, maybe he's not ready to go. Why not Botallico? I probably would have even put in DeJean. Or have some balls, and have Looper pitch the 8th and 9th.

Instead, Franco pitches. Gives up a 2-run homer. And the Mets lose.

And just 2 days earlier, Franco got the loss in a critical spot.

It's time for Franco to either retire or be released. But at least if he's going to be on the team, save him for less meaningful spots. Don't ever bring him in with the tie scored. And don't do it twice in a three day period.

edit: Well, Moreno pitched the 9th, so he was obviously able to pitch today. Granted, he gave up a run in the 9th, but I still would've preferred to see Howe bring him in instead of Johny Franco.

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Garcia, 2 HRs, 5 ribbies last nite. No real surprise to me.

How long until Wright gets hurt? Or until they slaughter him in the papers?
The Mets acquired C Tommy Piazza, younger brother of Mike, from the Los Angeles Dodgers and assigned him to rookie ball in the Gulf Coast League.

-bring him and Glavine's brother up. They can be like the fake Diesel and Razor Ramon.
Yesterday was indeed a painful loss. At least I had a delicious Mama's Special sandwich. And Chump is right, there was no reason to expect better from this team. If Piazza's out for awhile, it is going to hurt whatever chance we still have. Let the David Wright era begin!

I wanted to address the gripes from fans about how Benitez is suddenly closing out games successfully. Here's Benitez's saves and blown saves as Mets closer and with the Marlins:

2000 41-5
2001 43-3
2002 33-4
2003 21-7
2004 32-3

Obviously, he stunk in 2003, but he's converting his save opportunities at about the same rate he did from 2000-2002 with the Mets.

Tuesday, July 20, 2004

last nite was easily the most painful loss of the season. basically, we traded closers with the fish. ours didn't get it done. then theirs, a man so unloved he was annointed with one of the most comical nicknames ever, "Harmando Boonitez," came on and shut us down for like the 10th time this season.  a sad nite at shea, witnessed by an embarassingly small crowd.
that being said, it's important to keep things in perspective. before the season i hoped this team could get to .500, and that basically entails a loss every other day, which  is what we're getting.

DeJean seems like a decent pickup. They were getting rid of Karim anyway, and they can use all the help they can get in the 'pen. Since leaving Colorado, DeJean has had ERAs of 2.78, 3.12, and 4.68. His K/9IP rate has been in the 7-8 range, and is over 8 this year. He's always walked too many people, but it's not ridiculously out of control. I think he's just had a little bad luck this year, and should bounce back to be servicable down the stretch.
All that said, he's ranked as the second worst reliever in baseball this year by Prospectus' Adjusted Runs Prevented.

Monday, July 19, 2004

DeJean, a 33-year-old righthander, struggled mightily in his first taste of the American League this season. He parlayed a combined 19 saves with the Brewers and Cardinals last year into a one-year, $1.5 million free agent deal with the Orioles, and gave them an 0-5, 6.13 record in 37 appearances. Opponents strafed him for a .308 average with two homers, and his control was shaky with a 36-28 strikeout-walk ratio in 40 innings.
--is there no one in AAA with a 6.13 era who can pitch one inning every few days?

Friday, July 16, 2004

regarding olerud.  piazza, hilariously, said he doesn't want to return to catching more.
regarding wiggs to first-base.  i mean, seriously, can we set a record for most guys playing first? piazza, ziele, spencer, valent, hey wiggs, your turn! is floyd next?
regarding delgado. can someone explain how the giants, ever since they've moved into pacbell/sbc seem to be a cash cow yet can't/won't spend the cash to add someone even close to a lethal bat next to bonds? oh wait, alfonzo. yeah.
regarding walks: boo on bonds for breaking rickey's record.
regarding henry. yeah. that's right, harrison ford up in here.

Thursday, July 15, 2004

Well the prob with Delgado is that he has a no-trade and doesn't wanna go anywhere. That's probably why no one is talking about him.

Mentioned in one of the papers today that if/when Wright gets called up, Wigginton will play 1B part-time (if he's not traded). Umm, okay, why not just let him be a set-up man too for Looper?
The Mariners are supposedly about to release Olerud or designate him for assignment. If he'd be willing to come to NY and play part time, I think he'd be a useful addition for the rest of the year. He'd be the best defensive 1B we'd have, and as a lefty, could work in a pseudo-platoon with Phillips, with Piazza going back and forth between 1B and C.
Even with his off year, Olerud is hitting better than Phillips and Zeile, as well as Garcia, who he can replace as the non-Valent lefty off the bench.
EqA this year:
Olerud .268
Zeile .250
Phillips .225
Garcia .236

Olerud had a .278 EqA last year, and .320 the year before.
If we can get him for almost nothing, I think it's a no-brainer. Of course, some team may be willing to give him a starting job, so he might not want to come to play part time.
Trade Market
Obviously, whoever gets Randy Johnson is goint to greatly improve their chances of winning the World Series. I think if either the Yanks or Sox could get him for prospects, they would be HUGE favorites. Even if the Sox have to give up Nomar, I think it makes them much better in the postseason (moreso than the regular season). Can you imagine a rotation of Johnson-Schilling-Pedro in the postseason? That would be almost unstoppable, particularly when you consider that none of the Yankees' pitchers are having particularly great years. Vazquez has been strong, but Mussina and Brown haven't pitched that well.
If the Angels can get the Unit, they're suddenly up there with the Yanks and Sox, and actually make winning the AL East a big deal, because the Wild Card will probably have to face the West winner.

There's another potentially big impact player who nobody seems to be talking about: Carlos Delgado. He's a free agent at the end of the year and the Jays are out of the race, so I imagine he could be had for a fairly low price. He's having a lousy year, but he's been one of the best hitters in baseball for years now (last year he led the AL in OPS+, and was in the top 10 the 3 previous seasons), so unless there's something really physically wrong with him, he should bounce back. He'd be a huge bat to add to any number of lineups.
I think the team that could really use him is the Giants. Batting Delgado behind Bonds would finally force teams to throw some strikes to Bonds, and if they don't, there would at least be someone to drive Bonds home.
The Angels could really use him, too, with the lousy production they're getting out of Erstad at 1B.
Or the Braves. Replacing LaRoche with Delgado might win the division for them.
Or the White Sox if Thomas ends up out for the season.
Or even the Yankees or Red Sox. The Yanks could DH him. The Sox could DH either him or Ortiz and move Millar into a platoon with Trot. And since the Yanks and Sox have all righty starters (for now), it would be extra useful to have that big lefty bat to hit against them in the inevitable ALCS.

Wednesday, July 14, 2004

It's funny you mentioned the walks thing, cuz Marc and I were discussing it the other day. Bonds has 2200 walks for his career. That's a good 4 seasons worth of at-bats that he's missed out on. I don't know what his HR-to-AB ratio is, but we figured maybe 1 in 20 at bats (even though it's probably better than that). So there's 110 HRs right there, which would give him 800 by now. Ridiculous.
I'd just like to take this intra-All Star Break time to remind you all how ridiculous Barry Bonds is, and point out that he's on pace to have more walks than hits at a 2 to 1 ratio, and at the end of the season, not including errors, Bonds will have been on base 366 times (more than his previous high of 350 something back in the season when he had 198 walks), which has to be some sort of record.

If he maintains this rate and since he's scoring runs at a clip that projects to 129 at the end of the year, the simple calculations will tell you that any time Barry Bonds gets on base (and this may be minutely higher since I'm not accounting for however many times gets on base because of errors) he will have scored 35% of the time he gets on base.

Verification? Maybe someone else can do the research because I'm too lazy.

For further fun, but let's convert a random sample of, say, 150 of his intentional walks over the past five years, into plate appearances for Bonds from the last five years, if so, given his HR/PA ratio, but let's say it's 17% (which I don't know, and am again too lazy to calculate) can it logically follow that Bonds could have passed 700 HRs by now, or that he could be closer to 3000 hits (which getting to anymway may be tough considering he's going to be 40 in July, is 336 hits away and noone pitches to him).

Friday, July 09, 2004

I'm not saying they're all pointless, some of them are very relevant. But in my opinion, this new one on Adj Standings, along with others, is unnecessary and not useful.

If Unit goes to the Yanks, I quit watching baseball. Fundamentally destroying the game right there if that happens.
Brad, I disagree entirely with your classification of Prospectus. Prospectus tries to eliminate the statistics that don't matter, like, say RBIs, and come up with measurements of how a team is doing outside of its results, which are subject to variance. The measurements don't mean anything w-r-t the standings, obviously, but they're anything but pointless.

Thursday, July 08, 2004

I know it was sarcastic, I wasn't ripping on you. It's just that Prospectus comes up with more and more stats that, when it boils down to it, don't really mean anything. I mean, sure, they can come up with theories and such, but no one can legitimately say what's going to happen. Players/teams have runs, and they also have slumps. I think everyone knows that the Mets won't continue this great run they're having, nor will the Yanks continue to suck like this. But hey, a guy can dream.

However, I must say, I'm quite impressed with how the Mets have been playing. They're doing all the little things right, which they've had a problem with for a long time. Surprised no one's making mention of the hitting coming around now that Baylor was made hitting instructor, although I doubt that's really a factor.

Does this Soler guy really think he'll be able to help in a month? And do the Mets really believe him? And does anyone really believe he's 24?
What I got out of that article:

"Soler has undergone two major shoulder operations"

My first post on Adjusted Standings was sarcastic. Obviously, I'd rather the Mets be in first in the real standings. But, it's not pointless. What's done is done, but it's a useful tool to predict how teams are going to do the rest of the season because it's a more accurate measure of how good a team is than looking at their actual W-L. A lot of people already look at Pythagorean records (there was an article in the Times(?) earlier this week about it), this just takes it a couple steps further in eliminating the luck.

And how about this Cuban guy the Mets supposedly signed?

Wednesday, July 07, 2004

So is there any way to convince MLB to use Adj. Standings? Cuz otherwise it's another fucking pointless stat that Prospectus is coming up with.

Tuesday, July 06, 2004

According to Baseball Prospectus's Adjusted Standings, the Mets and Red Sox are both in first place.


Thursday, July 01, 2004

harbringer of doom? desperate times in beantown?

the sawx signed pedro astacio.

speaking of blimpie's fine array of roast beef sandwiches, the mets have interest in bringing back paul wilson in a deal possibly involving ty wiggington. mmm, imagine those two slathered in mayo and swiss cheese......