Thursday, December 27, 2007

Happy New Year!!! Here's a picture of assorted yankee despair which dates from, I think, their ALDS loss to the Angels in 2005.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Updated version of table from 2 days ago:

Castillo vs. Iguchi vs. Eckstein
EqA last 3 years:
2007 .260 .260 .267
2006 .253 .252 .246
2005 .280 .258 .268

Total value of contracts signed: $25mm $4mm $4.5mm
Minaya totally misread the market. Really bad job.
In other news, the Twins read my post yesterday and immediately followed my recommendation that they sign Adam Everett. This makes the Delmon Young trade look better for them, as Everett will be an adequate replacement for Bartlett.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Interesting names on the non-tender list:

Mark Prior
Mark Hendrickson
Akinori Otsuka
Kiko Calero
Adam Everett
Morgan Ensberg
Kevin Mench
Emil Brown

Prior is the big name. Now all the real teams have to struggle with the dilemma that fantasy owners struggle with every year: how much are you willing to pay for the small chance that Prior can once again be an elite pitcher? Considering how tough it is to find pitching in the current market, I think the longshot is worth something.

Mark Hendrickson might be a nice addition to a bullpen. In 41 relief innings last year, he had a 3.69 ERA with 41 Ks and 10 BBs.

I'm not sure how bad Akinori Otsuka's health situation is, but his track record means that he's worth doing some due diligence on.

Kiko Calero is a poor man's Otsuka.

Adam Everett is a replacement-level hitter, but he's the best fielder in baseball, about 25-30 runs above average with the glove. I think he's the most surprising name on the list; I guess the Astros didn't have much time to move him after acquiring Tejada yesterday. The O's need a shortstop, so I don't see why they couldn't include him in the deal. Everett would also be a
significant upgrade for the Twins, Nationals, A's, and Cardinals (if they don't resign Eckstein).

Some or all of Ensberg, Mench, and Brown might find a full-time job somewhere, but if not, they'd be great additions for a team that needs a platoon mate for a lefty 1B or corner outfielder. For instance, a certain New York team that happens to be my favorite squadron. Approximately 40% of the starting pitchers in the NL East this year will be southpaws. Here are avg/obp/slg #s against lefties over the last three seasons:

Ensberg .270/.409/.541
Mench .305/.368/.558
Brown .289/.353/.488

Delgado .231/.309/.454
Church .259/.336/.406

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Castillo vs. Iguchi
EqA last 3 years:
2007 .260 .260
2006 .253 .252
2005 .280 .258

Virtually identical offensive performance the last 2 years. Castillo was better three seasons ago, but does that justify the difference between a $4 million contract and a $25 million contract?

Monday, December 10, 2007

I agree on the Dontrelle point, but from what I heard, they had to take him if they wanted Miggy. While they might be better off keeping him, they could just as easily turn around and trade him to restock their system.

To also compare, Miguel vs. A-Rod (first 4 full seasons):
AB: 2380 vs. 2376
R: 410 vs. 474
H: 758 vs. 747
HR: 126 vs. 143
RBI: 461 vs. 442
BA: .318 vs. .314
TB: 1307 vs. 1348


Sunday, December 09, 2007

Miguel Cabrera has had four full seasons in the majors. For the last three, he's been one of the best hitters in baseball. He has a VORP of 219 during that span, ranking behind only Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and David Ortiz. He's still only 24. According to Baseball-Reference, the most similiar player to Cabrera through the age of 24 is Hank Aaron. In other words, the Detroit Tigers got a hell of a hitter. Great trade for the Tigers. The battle is on in the AL.

Other thoughts on the trade:
-Seems like a pretty big waste for Dontrelle to go to the AL. He's one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball, worth about a win a year with the bat.

-Now there's even more reason for the Twins to trade Johan (or sign him to an extension). The Twins are now pretty far behind two AL Central teams. There's not much reason for them to believe they can win this year.

-According to the Palm Beach Post, "reliever Kevin Gregg, who could make $2.5 million in arbitration this winter, stands to become the Marlins' highest-paid player."

-Since I'm pretty anti-Minaya these days, I'll point out that Cameron Maybin was taken 10th in the 2005 draft. That's one pick after the Mets took Mike Pelfrey. Maybin is the kind of prospect that can be used to get someone like Johan or Bedard in return, the kind of prospect the Mets don't have. Jay Bruce was taken 12th and was recently named the #1 prospect in baseball. Great job, Omar.
It's a little early to evaluate, but the early part of that 2005 first round looks like quite a crop. The first nine hitters taken were Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, and Jay Bruce. With the possible exception of Clement and McCutchen, those guys are all generally considered future all-stars. Unfortunately for the Mets, Jays, and Rays, the three pitchers taken in the top 12 spots don't seem to be amounting to nearly as much. The only pitchers in the first round who are still top prospects are Matt Garza (25th pick) and Clay Buchholz (supplemental round, 42nd overall). Great draft for the Red Sox, who also came away with the only other hitter taken in the first round who is currently a top prospect: Jacoby Ellsbury (#23).