And the old Mets are falling apart....

El Duque on the shelf for bursitis, and Valentin for a partially torn ACL.

Now they called up Park and Gotay, but why not Sosa and Anderson Hernandez? Seems odd to me.

I read the same exact thing today, and I noticed that they include $25 (!) for parking, and something like $75 for food (4 hot dogs, 4 sodas, cotton candy, popcorn, candy).

Every year, some organization called the Team Marketing Report publishes something
called the Fan Cost Index, which supposedly estimates the cost for a family of four
to attend a major league baseball game. Then, various media outlets will report that
it's way too expensive to attend a baseball game. I've always thought the Index was
ridiculous (it includes the cost of two programs and two caps), but I'd never
actually attended a game with two children in tow, so my factual evidence was
limited. Well, this past weekend, I finally attended a game with two children and
another adult, which meets the FCI definition of "family." According to the FCI, it
should have cost us $219.04 to attend the game. What did we actually spend? Upper
Deck seats (section 28, row A) were $9 each. That's $36. We took the subway to the
game, costing us $10 for 3 (one of the kids was young enough to ride for free)
roundtrip swipes of the Metrocard. $46. We brought lunch to the game, so our stadium
purchases were limited to cotton candy ($4) and a Sierra Mist ($3.50). $52.50. I'm
not sure exactly how much the food we brought cost. Bread + cold cuts + pringles +
carrot sticks + water bottles = $15? That puts us at a total of $67.50. In case I'm
underestimating the food, I'll call it $70. That's a far cry from $219. Sure, some
families probably do spend $219 to attend a Mets game, but I can finally say from
personal experience that you don't have to. $70 for a family of four to enjoy a
beautiful day at the ballpark sounds like a bargain to me.

Why is Mike Pelfrey in the majors?

After today's debacle, Mike Pelfrey has a career 6.43 ERA with 19 walks and 19 strikeouts in 35 innings. He has a bad ERA, a bad strikeout rate, and a bad walk rate. I know it's a small sample size, but there's nothing in his line to indicate that he's ready to pitch against major league hitters. Heck, his spring training stats were almost as bad: 5.48 ERA with 3 walks and 5 Ks in 23 innings. I think the Mets gave him a starting spot because of the low ERA he had after his first few spring starts, but they ignored the amazingly low strikeout rate, which was a clear sign that Pelfrey just isn't able to get his stuff past major league hitters yet.
Pelfrey has about 100 career minor league innings. It's pretty clear that he needs a little more seasoning before he's ready. I think Pelfrey would be better served by getting that seasoning in New Orleans, and I think the Mets would be better served by not giving away every fifth game. Jorge Sosa has been lighting up AAA so far and has a career 4.54 ERA in 74 major league starts. Pelfrey's still the long-term solution, but Sosa (or Vargas or Park) will give the Mets a better chance to win right now.

Umm, is Charlie Manuel just trying to get fired now? Moving Brett Myers to the bullpen? Are you kidding? And now Howard may be hurt too. All signs point to them being screwed.

Words from Ichiro

On his showdown with Dice-K: " "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

On what helped break him out of his slump: "Yesterday, I ate two ice creams, usually I only eat one."

Fantasy draft season got me thinking about how unpredictable prospects can be, which got me to thinking about the most out-of-nowhere prospect in recent history: Albert Pujols. Pujols seemingly came out of nowhere in 2001, eventually finishing 4th in the MVP voting. I don't remember thinking about him at all before the season started. He went undrafted in my 7 team NL fantasy league, which means that 210 NL players were deemed better options than Albert Pujols.

My friends and I weren't the only ones who slept on Pujols. The Cardinals drafted him in the 13th round in 1999. He made his pro debut in 2000, enjoying an excellent year in A ball with a line of .324/.389/.585. Still, none of the experts ranked him as an elite prospect. Baseball America is the leading source on baseball prospects. Three of their experts wrote separate prospect lists in BA's 2001 book. The highest ranking for Pujols was #39. Baseball Prospectus ranked him 29th (right behind Hee Seop Choi, just ahead of Adrian Gonzalez), but part of the reason he was even that high was his excellent defensive performance according to their metrics (I'm pretty skeptical about their minor league defensive figures). John Sickels was the most impressed, giving him an A- and rating him as the Number 18 prospect in baseball (right behind Marcus Giles).
I realize that ranking prospects is a difficult task, but it's still hard to believe that none of the experts realized how good he was about to be.

It's official - Our 2007 Mets:

Tom Glavine
Orlando Hernandez
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Billy Wagner
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoeneweis
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Sele
Joe Smith
Ambiorix Burgos

Paul Lo Duca
Ramon Castro

Carlos Delgado
Jose Valentin
Jose Reyes
David Wright
Julio Franco
Damion Easley
David Newhan

Carlos Beltran
Moises Alou
Shawn Green
Endy Chavez
Lastings Milledge

Rey Ordonez back in the majors!

Well-written piece by Joe Sheehan taking to task all the people complaining that the Veterans Committee didn't elect anyone to the Hall. I think we're better off having a Veterans Committee that lets in too few people than too many (which used to be a problem), and Sheehan's right that if a player from the modern era has already been rejected 15 times by the writers, then there's limited utility in giving them more chances. So, kudos to the Veterans Committee for keeping the standards high, but maybe it's time to disband altogether.

Interesting study on batted ball splits.

I don't question Willie sending Floyd up to hit, I only question the fact that he sent Floyd up there. Dude was hurt and hadn't played in a few days. They could have sent Franco up there, right?

Now, even Cliff Floyd is questioning whether he should've been used as the pinch hitter in the bottom of the ninth against the Cardinals.

Here's an interesting article from the WSJ that was published in October, but read by me today. Basically, the article concludes that after looking at all the numbers, from a statistical perspective, the decision whether to bunt was a tossup.

I've thought all along that it was defensible. Looking back on that inning now, it's easy to focus on the nasty curveballs that struck out Floyd and Beltran. But, at the moment Willie made his decision, the Mets had just hit two straight singles (their only hits since the first inning!) off Wainwright. I think it's understandable for Willie to decide not to give the rookie a free out and a chance to calm down. Willie felt that momentum was on our side, and to be honest, standing in the upper deck, I was feeling the same thing. In fact, I went as far as to dream of Cliff Floyd pulling a Kirk Gibson and launching a homerun over the right field wall. Heck, part of me was dreaming of him pulling a Tommie Agee and launching that homerun into the right field upper deck, where I was standing just fair of the foul pole.

Sadly, it didn't happen. I'm not going to criticize Willie's decision, but I'm not going to criticize Floyd's comments. They show that he's still thinking about that inning. That's understandable. I am, too.

On the heels of the tragic A-Rod and Jeter breakup, it's nice to see new teammates forming a special bond.

Ugh. According to this article, Shawn Green had (by far) the worst RF arm in baseball last year. Apparently, Moises was almost as bad, so switching their positions won't help. I guess this is just another reason (mediocre offense, ugly looking D in the playoffs) to hope that Endy and Ben Johnson see some time out in right, and that Milledge is ready to take over sometime this year.

Mets sign Chan Ho for $3 million.

It's hard to get excited about a pitcher who's been below average for the last five years, but it can't hurt to have a little more starting pitching depth, particularly now that Dave Williams won't be ready to start the season. So, now the fifth starter spot comes down to Park, Sosa, Pelfrey, Humber, Vargas, Soler, and Sele. [EDIT - The AP is reporting that the deal is only for $600k guaranteed, with incentives based on innings that can push it up to $3 million. If that's accurate, I like the deal. Very low risk.]

Here are the PECOTA projected EqERAs (ERA normalized to a neutral ballpark):
Pelfrey 4.78
Sosa 4.95*
Soler 5.12
Park 5.18
Sele 5.20
Humber 5.27
Vargas 5.71
*-Sosa's projected as more of a reliever, so his EqERA as a starter would be worse.

That doesn't tell us much that we don't already know. If Pelfrey is deemed ready, he's probably the best option, but it probably makes sense to at least wait until May for the warmer weather and more regular use of the 5th starter. Everyone else is pretty close, other than Jason Vargas.

Random Notes
Martinez vs. Tabata: John Sickels with the smackdown between top Mets and Yankees OF prospects.

David Wright dines with W.

Vinny Bombs retires.

J.D. Drew uses hyperbaric oxygen chamber.

Ichiro's a FA after 2007? Is it too much to dream of Ichiro in right? I'm picturing Reyes, Ichiro, Beltran, Delgado, and Wright at the top of the order. *drooling*

Boomer?
All along, I've read that David Wells will only sign with a West Coast team (presumably the Padres), but this article indicates that he'd be willing to go to Toronto. How 'bout the Mets? He's a better option than Jorge Sosa.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sign of the apocalypse: Todd Pratt signs minor league deal with the Yankees.