According to the PECOTA depth charts on Prospectus, the Mets are projected to finish 4th. Here are the win totals for the division:
Phillies 88
Braves 81
Marlins 80
Mets 79

The Mets projection is still based on Trachsel starting, so it'll fall a win or two once the Ishii trade is taken into account.

[Tues. update - somehow, the Mets are now projected for 81 wins, partially because they're projecting more playing time for Piazza now that Phillips is gone, which is somewhat dubious. Braves were bumped up to 82, so we're in 3rd. ZIPS projections have Mets in 2nd with 88 wins, 2 games behind the Phillies. Huzzah!]