Sunday, December 09, 2007

Miguel Cabrera has had four full seasons in the majors. For the last three, he's been one of the best hitters in baseball. He has a VORP of 219 during that span, ranking behind only Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and David Ortiz. He's still only 24. According to Baseball-Reference, the most similiar player to Cabrera through the age of 24 is Hank Aaron. In other words, the Detroit Tigers got a hell of a hitter. Great trade for the Tigers. The battle is on in the AL.

Other thoughts on the trade:
-Seems like a pretty big waste for Dontrelle to go to the AL. He's one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball, worth about a win a year with the bat.

-Now there's even more reason for the Twins to trade Johan (or sign him to an extension). The Twins are now pretty far behind two AL Central teams. There's not much reason for them to believe they can win this year.

-According to the Palm Beach Post, "reliever Kevin Gregg, who could make $2.5 million in arbitration this winter, stands to become the Marlins' highest-paid player."

-Since I'm pretty anti-Minaya these days, I'll point out that Cameron Maybin was taken 10th in the 2005 draft. That's one pick after the Mets took Mike Pelfrey. Maybin is the kind of prospect that can be used to get someone like Johan or Bedard in return, the kind of prospect the Mets don't have. Jay Bruce was taken 12th and was recently named the #1 prospect in baseball. Great job, Omar.
It's a little early to evaluate, but the early part of that 2005 first round looks like quite a crop. The first nine hitters taken were Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Andrew McCutchen, and Jay Bruce. With the possible exception of Clement and McCutchen, those guys are all generally considered future all-stars. Unfortunately for the Mets, Jays, and Rays, the three pitchers taken in the top 12 spots don't seem to be amounting to nearly as much. The only pitchers in the first round who are still top prospects are Matt Garza (25th pick) and Clay Buchholz (supplemental round, 42nd overall). Great draft for the Red Sox, who also came away with the only other hitter taken in the first round who is currently a top prospect: Jacoby Ellsbury (#23).

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