As much as I love the Johan trade, I'm still not convinced that the Mets are the best team in the NL. I mean, everyone after Johan is a question mark as I see it. Pedro and Duque are health risks, and Maine and Perez are always in danger of regressing. Delgado looked his age last year, although I don't know if it also had something to do with him having a kid for the first time (in my opinion, certain personal issues can have a positive/negative effect on a player). I know Castillo had surgery, and he doesn't have to play on the Minnesota turf anymore, so hopefully his knees hold up. Alou might have been our best player in the last 6 weeks (although that's not saying much) but he's going to be, what, 42?
My prohibitive NL favorite right now are the D'Backs. Their rotation is suspect after Webb/Haren, but that's a pretty damn good 1 & 2, and if Unit can give 200-225 IP and 10-12 wins, they should be sitting pretty. Their offense is young, but with the right mix of veterans. Right now I'm thinking 1. Arizona 2. Mets 3. Cubs 4. not sure, cuz there are alot of teams on the cusp like Milwaukee (love their offense), Philly (suspect rotation/best infield in majors), Colorado (I mean, they are the defending NL champs), LA, and SD (love their rotation, hate their offense).
2 comments:
I'm not sold on the DBacks at all. Webb and Haren are a great 1-2, but otherwise their staff is unimpressive. The bullpen overachieved last year; Brandon Lyon is their closer. Their lineup has a ton of upside, but no proven bats. Conor Jackson is arguably their best hitter.
Every team in the league has questions. I still think the Mets are the strongest. I'm not sure what order I'd rank them, but I think I'd put the Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers and Cubs ahead of Arizona.
Having Pelfrey start the year in AAA (unless he is converted into a reliever) should give the Mets enough flexibility to plug him in when Pedro and El Duque miss starts. As long as Pelfrey pitches to a 5ish ERA (vs. the 6+ Park, Williams, Lawrence and Humber put up last year), the Mets will win more games by default.
Wright is still growing, and as long as Reyes doesn't attempt 100 steals again, he should have a more consistent season. Delgado did show signs of improvement before Dontrelle broke his hand late in September.
I like what I see from Maine peripheral-wise (I'm biased because I was at The Greatest Game Ever*), but a contract year for Perez could be a double-edged sword (could have a year like another Boras client, Andruw Jones).
It's a big if, but Duaner regaining his 2006 form gives the Mets one of the best pens in the league.
*Would've been The Greatest Game Ever if Glavine showed up to the park the next day.
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