Did Beane Blow It?

A few months ago, Billy Beane decided that the A's chances weren't good in '08 and went into dump mode. He traded ace Dan Haren to Arizona for a huge package of prospects and sent offensive stalwart Nick Swisher to the White Sox for two top pitching prospects. Both packages seemed like pretty good hauls, but most of the media coverage just took his word on the premise behind the trade. But, as Opening Day approaches, I think it's fair to ask whether the A's could've been a playoff team with Haren and Swisher.
Most people have treated the Angels as the runaway favorites in the division, but injuries are taking their toll. John Lackey is out until at least mid-May. Kelvim Escobar has a shoulder tear and may be out for the season.
Meanwhile, the Bedard acquisition got a lot of people excited about the Mariners, but their lineup is very weak. I don't think they're nearly as good as most people think.
On the other hand, the A's are better than most people think.
These PECOTA-based projected standings have the Angels at 87 wins, the A's at 80, and the Mariners at 75.
I'll be generous to the Angels and assume that Lackey makes the 25 starts he's predicted to. But, if we take Escobar out and replace him with Adenhart/Moseley, the Angels fall to about 85 wins.
The Mariners prediction seems low. PECOTA unjustifiably hates Ichiro. But, Ichiro doing his usual thing only brings them up to 79 wins. I still think that's a little low, but nothing about the projections seems totally out of whack, so I think it's fair to say this is a 79-84 win team.
So, let's look at these 80-win A's. Most of the projections look pretty reasonable. Adding Haren back to the team would add about 4 wins and adding Swisher back would add 3 or 4. So, if the A's hadn't gone into dump mode, it would be fair to project them as an 87 win team. They would be far from a lock to win the division, but there's an argument that they'd be the favorite. If they did make the playoffs, they'd most likely be the worst of the AL playoff teams, but Beane is a believer in the "crap shoot" theory regarding the postseason, so it seems they should have rolled the dice.