Monday, June 29, 2009

Both blog writers and real-life people seem to feel that the Mets have been a huge disappointment this season, but I'm not sure if there's anything to be disappointed by other than all the injuries.

Here's a simple exercise - look at the pre-season projections for everyone who's played for the Mets, multiply by how much they've actually played, and see how many runs we should've reasonably expected this team to score and give up.

For hitters, I took the PECOTA projection of EqA (which is a measure of overall offensive value), looked at the actual number of PA for every hitter who has played for the Mets this year, and then made a small adjustment for the park factor. According to the pre-season projections, the Mets should've scored 324 runs so far this year.

For pitchers, I took the PECOTA projection for ERA for each pitcher and then multiplied by their actual IP to determine how many earned runs the team was projected to allow. Since PECOTA doesn't project unearned runs, I assumed an average number of unearned runs for the team as a whole (the average MLB team has given up 26 unearned runs this year). The PECOTA projections come out to 332 total runs allowed.

Here's a table comparing the PECOTA projections to the actual performance of the team this year:

PECOTA Mets 324 332
Real Mets 333 338

The Mets have been slightly better on offense than projected and slightly worse on pitching/defense, and pretty much the same if you combine the two.

So, blame Omar for putting together a crappy team. Blame the trainers for failing to keep the team healthy. But, it's hard to blame Manuel and the coaching staff for failing to get adequate performance from the players they've been dealt.


Fred Coupon said...

I think Jerry Manuel's doing a capable job with the hand he was dealt, though the continually sloppy defense is a little disturbing. Sandy Alomar Sr, the bench/infield coach, should get some blame for that.

Wouldn't it make more sense to split up the Mets offensive numbers pre and post Delgado injury? And I still don't like David Wright's approach to the plate at all. He still fishes at sliders away and gets beaten by fastballs inside.

coachie said...

yeah, but they still lost to braden looper!

and joel piniero last week!

Fred Coupon said...

Nieve lost last night's game, even though Wright left a few runners on base with horrific strikeouts after being ahead 3-1 in the count each time before collecting some garbage RBI in the ninth.

coachie said...

yeah, but nondescript lineup and all, they should punish wack starters like Looper, Piniero, and Wang as much as their own pitchers get punished.

Big Pelf! when are we finally buying the t-shirts?

Fred Coupon said...

Just a few more losses before Omar can wave the white flag, but at least wake up Wright by firing his boy HoJo. Please?

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