Monday, December 15, 2003

I want to go on record and say that the Os are giving too much money to Tejada ($72/6). He's getting $5million more per year than Matsui and 3 extra years to boot. I would agree that Tejada will be better than Matsui, but I don't think by that much. Admittedly, it's hard to predict what Matsui will do, so let's compare Tejada to other shortstops. Tejada's EQA last year (which was a fairly typical year for him) was .280. Here's where he ranks:
ARod .326
Renteria .309
Jeter .299
Nomar .296
Furcal .281
Tejada .280
Cintron .280
Cabrera .276
C.Guillen .274
Reyes .274 (admittedly limited # of ABs)
(more info here)

Not all that overwhelming. Granted, Tejada has a more consistent track record than a lot of those guys and he deserves credit for playing 162 games the last couple years. I'd still probably rank him the #3 SS in baseball (behind ARod and Nomar). And when you compare his contract to ARod's and Jeter's, it looks small. But, the economics of baseball have changed tremendously in the last couple years. I think $12 million is the top of the range for Tejada. If this was a 3 year deal, it wouldn't be that bad. But a lot can happen in 6 years. The best the O's can hope for is Tejada will still be the same player in 6 years, but there's always a significant chance for decline or injury, particularly considering the speculation over his real age.

And regarding the A's, their new SS Bobby Crosby had a .273 Major League Equivalent (MLE) EQA last year, which means that he should be somewhat close to Tejada this year.

All that said, if the O's sign Vlad and IRod, it'll be pretty bad ass. Their offense will rock, but they don't have much pitching.
How much does it suck to be the Blue Jays? They had a very solid year, lot of good young hitters, and they've made some good additions to their rotation (Batista, Lilly). If they were in any other division in baseball, they could have some hope of making the playoffs this year, and feel even better about their chances in the future. Instead, they're stuck in a division with the 2 best teams in baseball and now another team that seems determined to sign every big free agent hitter.

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