Thursday, March 11, 2004

This made my brain hurt:

Bill James invented a method called the Favorite Toy to determine approximately where a player's total in a given category would wind up. The method is fairly simple, taking into account how many more years the player will probably play and his current established norms in that particular category. According to the Favorite Toy formula, Rafael Palmeiro will end up with 590 career home runs. The formula gives Palmeiro a 36 percent chance to hit 600 home runs, with a caveat. The Favorite Toy formula predicts Palmeiro has 1.5 seasons remaining in his career. Palmeiro has established a level of 41 home runs per season over the last three seasons. He's been within six home runs of that number in each of the last nine seasons. With 1.5 seasons remaining, Palmeiro can be projected to hit 62 more home runs, bringing his career total to 590.

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