Tuesday, February 24, 2004

Tooting my own horn

As some of you may have noticed, I frequently use Equivalent Average (EqA) when discussing players. Fortunately, Baseball Prospectus published an explanation today. It's a little tedious, but the basic conclusion is that it correlates very well to runs scored on the team level (better than OPS).

Anyway, I had never actually seen how it was calculated before and was quite shocked to see that the rawest form is this:

H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP) + SB
-------------------------------------
AB + BB + HBP + CS + SB/3

To anyone who plays fantasy baseball with me, and most people on this blog have, the numerator should look somewhat familiar to them. It's extremely similar to the formula we use. The only differences are HBP (which don't make much of a difference) and that we give half a point for Runs and RBI (which wasn't my idea and am generally against, but I don't think it's a big deal).
In fact, the original formula that I came up with for my first fantasy season 10 years ago when I was a HS sophomore was:

H+TB+BB+SB

It took me quite a few years to upgrade walks, but that's still remarkably close for a HS sophomore at a time when nobody was really talking about walks yet.

An even more amazing fact is that if my memory is correct, we somehow did the entire draft during one period of school. For some reason, all I can remember about my team is that I drafted Jason Bere and Aaron Sele. Kenny drafted Ryne Sandberg, who retired half-way through the season.

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